What’s Really Happening with the Market Right Now?

We already know that home sales are way down. I want to give you exactly what those numbers are year over year. In the United States, we’re down 16%. In the Northeast, Midwest, South and West, are all down, and all down by double digits. 

Now, there are two factors driving current sales activity down; that’s inventory availability, there’s not enough houses on the market, and mortgage rates. Unfortunately, both have been unfavorable to buyers and we can also argue they are unfavorable to some sellers who would become buyers. 

The sellers who are sitting on a 3% – 4% mortgage rates don’t want to give that up and buy a house with a 7%+ mortgage. I get that. Most of them won’t. Now, if we take a look at that, what did that do to inventory numbers? Well, inventory was a challenge long before rates jumped up. 

As a matter of fact, if we take a look at the average annual inventory of homes for sale going all the way back to 1999, it had not reached the six months inventory level even then.

Six months is a normal inventory, that’s when the market is balanced. And if we are taking a look at the six months of inventory levels, outside of the market crash bust years from 2006 thru 2011, we haven’t hit six months of inventory levels. 

Active listings, people keep on talking, well, active listings are going up, the listings are getting better, and they are. The challenge is they’re nowhere near where they need to be. And the total listing count is the same situation.

Now, you might not want to break down each one of these things, so I put it all in one slide for you. And this compares August to the last three normal years in real estate, the August of those years. So we can see that new listings, active listings, and total listings are all down.

But most experts believe that we are going to see high sixes by
the end of this year. And I think when there’s a actual six at the beginning of the interest rate number, a lot of
people’s attitudes are going to change. It’s almost psychological. And they believe that it’s going to be in the fives by the middle to the end of next year. At five, the floodgates are going
to open.

So we need to be patient right now because as the Fed… And I’m not going to take sides on whether the Fed’s doing it right or wrong. But as the Fed is driving down inflation and hurting the housing market to some degree right now, in the long term, if the
mortgage rates follow, then we’re going to have a really, really strong housing market sooner than later.

DFW Market Report | Last 7 Days of Market Activity

Things to Consider When Selling or Buying a House in Fall of 2023

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Everything You Need to Know Before Buying Your Next Home

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I'm Alfred, and I love helping buyers find their dream home at an affordable price and I love helping sellers looking to sell and buy their next home. Let me know how I can help you make your real estate dreams come true. 

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Hi, there!

I'm Alfred, and I love helping buyers find their dream home at an affordable price and I really love helping homeowners looking to sell and buy their next home. Let me know how I can help make your dreams come true. 

schedule your free consultation

Home Buying Process

Homes You May Like

Home Selling Process

All Articles